Weekly Market Update #11

Dear Traders,

Today is the 18th November 2020, let’s get another weekly update, and talk about some of the recent moves we have seen on some charts. I hope this newsletter helps to explain in more detail my current bias for PA and where I think we could be heading over the coming days, weeks, and months!

Daily Market Breakdown

This week for me it’s all about trying to be patient and analyse the potential pullback areas that could be targeted once we see this pullback take place. I mentioned in premium newsletter yesterday that I had sold my position in BTC for both leverage and spot and was now just sitting on the sidelines with patience. I have no issues buying BTC if we flip ATH at a $2500 premium, and I also have no issues buying BTC once it is $2500 lower and at macro support. Here is what I said yesterday…

I have been consistently trading BTC for the past 2.5 years and this is the first time I have ever felt like the market is irrational. The price is currently not really the issue for me personally, it’s more of the social aspect and general euphoria we are seeing across the board. The price at the start of the year for Bitcoin was around $4500 on the march dip, and now the price is at $18,000, without any really major pullback or correction with the current trend. Even though I am bullish in the macro and longterm, and I think the price will easily break above ATH next year, I think that a pullback would be healthy, just like in any traded market. It’s very important that we realize just how far we have come in such a short period of time and not just take this huge move to the upside for granted, it’s always important to realize profits.

Since releasing yesterdays newsletter we have instantly see an initial local top in the market and price is starting to trade a little bit lower, while no major pullback has occurred just yet and bulls still look pretty strong I am happy to be sitting on the sidelines at the moment and watching to see what happens. Taking this all into account, I am still heavily positioned in both ETH and a few altcoins, I have mentioned what altcoins I am buying in the premium newsletter and will not make that public for the time being. I do think some alts have good buying opportunities.

The important support levels for ETH are actually not that far below, unlike BTC which needs a much larger pullback in my opinion. I would say anything from $360-$400 will be a major region for buyers to start adding to long-term positions and this is where I would likely be buying a majority of my spot and leverage position back. There is so much more upside for ETH over the coming months.

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In terms of LTF ETH momentum, we did see a break to the upside which we was looking for in the previous newsletter. We did not end up reaching my upside target which was set at $500 but we did get pretty high and tapped $495 which was pretty close. Currently now we are seeing this upper resistance at $470 turned support.

I think we are currently just ranging between $470 and $477 but a break to the downside could be likely if we lose this range support, this is where I would lock in some profits and look for a re-entry around $440. For the time being, support is looking really strong at $470 and any dip below is being bought up pretty aggressively by buyers and if this can continue to the coming week we might just be able to reclaim our strength and retarget $500 next week. All depends on if this upper range holds.

I think once BTC pullback and starts to re-accumulate I think there is a very good chance that alts and ETH can start to move higher and break out of this consistently squeeze to the downside we have been seen for the past few weeks. I think strong alt positions are worth taking a shot on at these current prices against BTC. Most are at critical support on the HTF charts and I see a lot of buying opportunities.

Just to summarize, I think a local top could be formed on Bitcoin for the time being and I am just patiently waiting to see what happens next. I have no issues with missing any further upside moment and I think capital preservation should take priority right now over greed and euphoria. I am still heavily positions in ETH and Alts, I think capital will flow back into alts if Bitcoin can accumulate up until Christmas.

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