Welcome back to another weekly market update, in this newsletter I just wanted to cover some HTF analysis for both ETH and BTC and just generally the market as it currently seems as though we could be seeing the start of a higher timeframe pullback and I just want to make sure that everyone is on the exact same page right now.
So firstly I just want to start of by taking a look at BTC/USD on a high timeframe chart that has been pretty accurate the past couple of months, as you can see from the chart that has been attached below, $11,000 was broken to the downside and then once price retested this level is confirmed it to be resistance, with price failing to get higher. This is a pretty much perfect example of bearish S/R flip setup taking place.
From here there is not much more to see currently, it seems as though the next support level which is $9900/$10,000 is the next key support level below and honestly all currently TA seems to be pointing at that level looking to be hit. Currently PA on the daily and 3D is looking pretty bearish due to this rejection so its hard to just hope that price is going to move upwards from here as its likely not going to happen.
I have been saying for a while now that hedging 50% of your portfolio would probably be the best scenario and this is why, you now have free capital to start buying up these dips that we now are seeing across the board. At the very least leveraged positions should have been cut, profits taken ready for a possible move to the downside. If you have been keeping up with the HedgedInterest blog you would have seen that a lot of our articles have been written trying to tell traders to take profits and hedged some of their capital for a move such as this. So what’s next? I think $10,000 support.
Taking a look at ETH/USD you can see from this HTF chart that a logical level to find some major support from here would be the $300 region. This is a vital support region which you can see from the chart below, this region was previously resistance back in 2019 so it will be very important that this region remains as support moving forward.
I think with BTC touching mid $9000’s and ETH touching $300 then we could see this a major support region that we can see some accumulation before we head into the new year. I these are pretty obvious level that every trader should be watching for as we move forward, these levels keep a majority of the HTF momentum still bullish and it does not reverse the impact price has seen this year. It will be super healthy to retest these levels, in my opinion. What we do not want to see if mid $9000’s not holding as support for Bitcoin and $300’s not holding as support for Ethereum, this would be the worst case scenario. Play it safe, play defensive like I said in the last newsletter and just slowly start to buy up your position the further we drop, scaling in wisely.